Hedge fund entry into prediction markets
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House Democrat targets candidate prediction market trades after opponent's Kalshi penalty
The House and Senate are not set to meet until after the midterm elections, meaning the proposal has little to no chance of getting implemented for the current electoral cycle.
The House of Representatives has yet to pass a similar ban, though resolutions to do so have been proposed.
Buckhout said in a statement that she bet on herself and called it a dumb mistake.
Appeals court rules states can regulate Kalshi's prediction markets
The state of New York filed a lawsuit against Polymarket on Thursday, arguing it is operating as an unlicensed gambling operation.
Judge Julia Smith Gibbons wrote the opinion for a unanimous three-judge panel.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul said Polymarket put New Yorkers at risk, especially those underage who are vulnerable to problem gaming.
New York sues Polymarket over illegal gambling allegations
A growing list of states including Arizona, Massachusetts, and Nevada have sued prediction market platforms.
New York had previously sued Coinbase and Gemini for offering users the ability to bet on sports, entertainment, and elections in violation of New York laws.
According to the Wall Street Journal report, when CEO Shayne Coplan was made aware of the stolen card issue, he responded by saying to keep growing and pay a fine if regulators ever find out.
“By skirting New York’s laws, Polymarket is targeting the most vulnerable and depriving New York families of critical services and support. My office will never hesitate to take action to defend our laws and keep New Yorkers safe.”
CFTC warns prediction market 'mentions' contracts carry manipulation risk
The CFTC encourages exchanges to engage with its division of market oversight during the early phases of designing mention market contracts.
The CFTC advised exchanges listing mention markets to consider four factors: outside obligations of the subject, external pressure on the subject's speech or conduct, whether settlement words or actions are independently verifiable, and whether adequate oversight measures exist to detect manipulation.
The CFTC said its letter was not creating new obligations but rather advising entities on when mention markets may be listed consistent with the Commodity Exchange Act.
Kalshi asks CFTC to allow margin trading on its platform
Kalshi already provides leverage on its perpetual futures contracts.
Kalshi filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to seek approval to offer leverage on event contracts.
Currently, all event contracts on regulated U.S. exchanges are entirely collateralized.
Prediction markets becoming more professionalized
Jensen expects the proportion of traders considered to have an edge to shrink from 3% to potentially below 1%.
Theis Jensen is a Yale economist and co-author of the paper analyzing Polymarket trades.
Kalshi's headline CPI forecast outperformed the Bloomberg consensus.
NFL and midterm elections set up prediction markets for critical fall season
Kalshi launched a midterm elections hub in July.
ProphetX launched in June focusing on sports-related event contracts.
In 2024, election-related event contracts were not legal in the U.S. until a month before the presidential vote.
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness active in options market
The options moves were made late last week and early this week.
Leopold Aschenbrenner is an AI researcher whose hedge fund virtually collapsed over the summer.
It was unclear if Aschenbrenner was taking in new money to fund the new activity or using assets left over after the July rout and Citadel sale.
Election officials ban certain public workers from trading on prediction markets
CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
An election office in Delaware County, Pennsylvania banned roughly 2,200 employees from trading on prediction market contracts tied to elections.
Los Angeles city councilmember Nithya Raman advanced to a November runoff against incumbent mayor Karen Bass.
Kalshi launches gold and silver perpetuals following CFTC approval
Udesh Jha is the chief risk officer at Kalshi Klear, Kalshi's clearing house.
Kalshi originally filed for the perpetual futures in July.
Kalshi's commodity event contracts reached $400 million in half the time it took its crypto event contracts to reach the same mark.
How much it costs to move a midterm prediction market
The price on Hunt's victory slid back down, but two days later several wallets pushed it back up on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
On Feb. 7, three wallets on Polymarket shifted prices in two different markets, one asking whether Paxton would win and another asking whether Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, would win the Senate primary.
The Anti-Corruption Data Collective works with journalists, data analysts, academics and policy advocates.
“The two large, five-figure trades by one or two wallets that will eventually run contrary to the polls, political momentum and eventual outcome — such as the 7 February trades for Hunt and against Paxton — are difficult to explain without a market-moving motivation,”
Opinion: Prediction markets become America's new national pastime
Bill Simmons had his daughter's boyfriend place FanDuel bets for him from Massachusetts.
Kalshi banned former congressman George Santos from its service.
Bill Simmons said he gave his daughter's boyfriend a login code so the boyfriend could log into his FanDuel account from Massachusetts and place bets.
LeBron James teases Polymarket partnership
Polymarket has partnerships with Major League Soccer, Major League Baseball, and the National Hockey League, as well as teams like the New York Yankees and New York Rangers.
NBA rules restrict players' financial interests in companies that offer league-related wagering or similar products.
The video shows James in the elevator of Polymarket's headquarters heading to the company's sports floor.
New Jersey takes legal battle over prediction markets to Supreme Court
Arizona filed charges claiming Kalshi operated an illegal, unlicensed gambling business and accepted unlawful wagers from Arizona residents.
The 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in April that federal regulators retain exclusive oversight of prediction markets, including sports-related contracts.
Prediction platforms have argued their sports-related contracts are a type of derivative called a swap, solely regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Ex-White House teleprompter operator fined for Trump speech bets
Federal prosecutors indicted US soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke for allegedly making a $400,000 bet on Polymarket about whether Nicolás Maduro would be removed from Venezuela's presidency.
The CFTC ordered Perez to disgorge $107,539.02 in profits and pay a $65,000 civil penalty.
A White House teleprompter operator named Gabriel Perez was fined $172,000 by federal regulators for using inside knowledge to bet on Donald Trump's speeches.
Ex-White House teleprompter operator ordered to pay $172,000 for Trump speech bets
Karoline Leavitt said in July that Perez was on unpaid leave and would not return to his post.
The CFTC said Perez misappropriated his prior knowledge of Trump's speeches to place bets in breach of his duty of trust and confidence.
Kalshi used account data to identify the user as a federal employee operating White House teleprompters and reported the activity to the regulator.
US appeals court rules against prediction markets, sets up Supreme Court fight
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals concluded that sports-related event contracts are not swaps because they are sports bets.
Robinhood stated that it plans to appeal the Ninth Circuit's decision.
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals rejected requests for injunctive relief from prediction market platforms Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood against the Nevada Gaming Control Board.
Donald Trump Jr. told Republican state attorneys not to fight prediction markets
Trump Jr. said event contract exchanges should be overseen by federal authorities.
Trump Jr. serves as a partner at 1789 Capital.
Forty-four attorneys general wrote to the CFTC stating the federal agency cannot oversee sports-related event contracts.
CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on prediction market risks
The state of New York sued Kalshi in July, alleging the company operated as an illegal gambling operator.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is currently the sole member of the agency's commission board.
The CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee consists of more than 30 members and includes executives from Robinhood, Nasdaq, and CME.
“We've also protected federally regulated prediction markets from rogue state attorneys general like Letitia James, who seek to nullify federal law and drive these markets offshore to unregulated and foreign venues,”
Kalshi Prediction Market Gauges Year-End Bitcoin Price Projections
Kalshi resolves its bitcoin contracts using price data provided by CF Benchmarks.
Speculators on Kalshi estimate that the price of bitcoin at the end of 2026 will be approximately $75,000.
Before Wednesday, Kalshi traders viewed it as most likely that bitcoin would finish the year around $66,000.
Hedge funds prepare major entry into prediction markets
Susquehanna International Group will provide pricing and liquidity as a market maker in the trades with Cantor's clients
Cantor Fitzgerald will act as a broker, organizing block trades on Kalshi's event contracts for its clients
Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said Cantor first reached out to Kalshi a few months earlier
“Prediction markets are growing rapidly, but institutional participation has not kept pace because investors have lacked the ability to transact at scale on a regulated exchange. The liquidity is here,”