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Hedge fund entry into prediction markets

One page that accretes the verified record as the story develops. Every fact keeps its date and its sources.

19 DAYS
106 FACTS
11 EVENTS
10 SOURCES
FIRST ENTRY AUG 19
SEP 06 · Day 19

Opinion: Prediction markets become America's new national pastime

FanDuel's Sportsbook is illegal in California.

George Santos won more than $17,000 from his Kalshi bet.

Kalshi banned former congressman George Santos from its service.

SEP 05 · Day 18

LeBron James teases Polymarket partnership

Giannis Antetokounmpo became a shareholder in Kalshi earlier this year and agreed to participate in marketing and live events.

The terms of James' deal with Polymarket have not been disclosed.

NBA rules restrict players' financial interests in companies that offer league-related wagering or similar products.

SEP 04 · Day 17

New Jersey takes legal battle over prediction markets to Supreme Court

Jennifer Davenport said the ruling divide will determine whether a multi-billion-dollar gaming industry can operate free from state sports-gaming laws.

Prediction platforms have argued their sports-related contracts are a type of derivative called a swap, solely regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Kalshi states on its website that it is regulated as a Designated Contract Market (DCM).

AUG 29 · Day 11

Ex-White House teleprompter operator ordered to pay $172,000 for Trump speech bets

Perez's civil penalty was reduced due to his exemplary co-operation with the investigation.

Kalshi used account data to identify the user as a federal employee operating White House teleprompters and reported the activity to the regulator.

The CFTC said Perez misappropriated his prior knowledge of Trump's speeches to place bets in breach of his duty of trust and confidence.

AUG 29 · Day 11

Ex-White House teleprompter operator fined for Trump speech bets

Federal prosecutors indicted US soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke for allegedly making a $400,000 bet on Polymarket about whether Nicolás Maduro would be removed from Venezuela's presidency.

The CFTC issued its news release about Perez about a month after the White House said he no longer had his job there.

The CFTC ordered Perez to disgorge $107,539.02 in profits and pay a $65,000 civil penalty.

AUG 28 · Day 10

US appeals court rules against prediction markets, sets up Supreme Court fight

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals concluded that sports-related event contracts are not swaps because they are sports bets.

The CFTC has sued nine states to defend its right to make rules for prediction markets.

A CFTC spokesperson stated that the Ninth Circuit erred by inventing an atextual exception to the Commodity Exchange Act.

AUG 27 · Day 9

Donald Trump Jr. told Republican state attorneys not to fight prediction markets

Forty-four attorneys general wrote to the CFTC stating the federal agency cannot oversee sports-related event contracts.

Kalshi said lobbyist Jim Harrell helped shape the language of a provision in the North Carolina state budget that declared a 6% tax on prediction markets versus a 23% tax on sportsbooks.

Eight of the nine states sued by the CFTC have Democratic attorneys general.

AUG 21 · Day 3

CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on prediction market risks

Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara expressed support for self-certification to enable rapid market availability.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig outlined a three-part regulatory roadmap for prediction markets.

CME Group CEO Terry Duffy stated that 2,500 self-certifications have taken place since January 2025 without opposition.

“We've also protected federally regulated prediction markets from rogue state attorneys general like Letitia James, who seek to nullify federal law and drive these markets offshore to unregulated and foreign venues,”
MICHAEL SELIG verbatim
AUG 21 · Day 3

Kalshi Prediction Market Gauges Year-End Bitcoin Price Projections

Bitcoin was last trading above $77,000.

Kalshi contracts ask traders to place trades on whether bitcoin will trade within specific $5,000 ranges at midnight on January 1, 2027.

Before Wednesday, Kalshi traders viewed it as most likely that bitcoin would finish the year around $66,000.

AUG 19 · Day 1

Hedge funds prepare major entry into prediction markets

Cantor can request that Kalshi design new markets for its clients to trade on

Retail traders have driven Kalshi's rise to date, primarily trading the platform's sports-related event contracts

Cantor Fitzgerald announced it will be one of the first investment firms providing clients institutional trading on prediction market platform Kalshi

“Prediction markets are growing rapidly, but institutional participation has not kept pace because investors have lacked the ability to transact at scale on a regulated exchange. The liquidity is here,”
PASCAL BANDELIER verbatim
MAR 18 · Day -153

Arizona AG files criminal charges against Kalshi over illegal gambling

Quote copied with attribution