Hedge fund entry into prediction markets
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House Democrat targets candidate prediction market trades after opponent's Kalshi penalty
The House and Senate are not set to meet until after the midterm elections, meaning the proposal has little to no chance of getting implemented for the current electoral cycle.
The House of Representatives has yet to pass a similar ban, though resolutions to do so have been proposed.
The bill was introduced during a pro forma session of the House of Representatives.
Appeals court rules states can regulate Kalshi's prediction markets
The state of New York filed a lawsuit against Polymarket on Thursday, arguing it is operating as an unlicensed gambling operation.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul said Polymarket put New Yorkers at risk, especially those underage who are vulnerable to problem gaming.
Judge Julia Smith Gibbons wrote the opinion for a unanimous three-judge panel.
New York sues Polymarket over illegal gambling allegations
A growing list of states including Arizona, Massachusetts, and Nevada have sued prediction market platforms.
The lawsuit alleges that Polymarket encouraged gambling among young people by targeting users as young as 18, while state law requires users to be at least 21 years old for mobile sports betting.
New York had previously sued Coinbase and Gemini for offering users the ability to bet on sports, entertainment, and elections in violation of New York laws.
“By skirting New York’s laws, Polymarket is targeting the most vulnerable and depriving New York families of critical services and support. My office will never hesitate to take action to defend our laws and keep New Yorkers safe.”
CFTC warns prediction market 'mentions' contracts carry manipulation risk
The CFTC advised exchanges listing mention markets to consider four factors: outside obligations of the subject, external pressure on the subject's speech or conduct, whether settlement words or actions are independently verifiable, and whether adequate oversight measures exist to detect manipulation.
The CFTC said its letter was not creating new obligations but rather advising entities on when mention markets may be listed consistent with the Commodity Exchange Act.
A longtime teleprompter operator for President Donald Trump named Gabriel Perez profited off trades on Kalshi related to mention market contracts tied to the president's statements.
Kalshi asks CFTC to allow margin trading on its platform
Kalshi is seeking to introduce a system where the capital requirements to obtain leverage increase as event contracts near their expiry date.
Kalshi filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to seek approval to offer leverage on event contracts.
Currently, all event contracts on regulated U.S. exchanges are entirely collateralized.
Prediction markets becoming more professionalized
Jensen expects the proportion of traders considered to have an edge to shrink from 3% to potentially below 1%.
Theis Jensen is a Yale economist and co-author of the paper analyzing Polymarket trades.
Skilled accounts earned consistent profits by reacting more quickly to publicly available news, arbitraging inconsistent pricing across related contracts and trading against behavioral errors.
NFL and midterm elections set up prediction markets for critical fall season
ProphetX launched in June focusing on sports-related event contracts.
ProphetX's revenue doubled from June to August.
Polymarket debuted an advertisement on Tuesday featuring LeBron James, Eli Manning, and Derek Jeter as part of a football season marketing campaign.
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness active in options market
The options moves were made late last week and early this week.
Leopold Aschenbrenner is an AI researcher whose hedge fund virtually collapsed over the summer.
A rapid decline in July in AI-related stocks that Aschenbrenner was buying using leverage forced him to unwind his public equity positions to Ken Griffin's Citadel in a fire sale.
Election officials ban certain public workers from trading on prediction markets
Maryland's administrator of elections sent a letter to the state prosecutor in July requesting an investigation on whether prediction market election contracts violate a state law that prohibits wagers on election outcomes.
James Allen, Delaware County's elections director, asserted that prediction markets are gambling.
A resolution adopted in Maricopa County, Arizona bans about 13,000 county employees from trading on non-public information.
Kalshi launches gold and silver perpetuals following CFTC approval
Kalshi originally filed for the perpetual futures in July.
Udesh Jha is the chief risk officer at Kalshi Klear, Kalshi's clearing house.
CME has sued the CFTC to block the approval of perps in the U.S.
How much it costs to move a midterm prediction market
The price on Hunt's victory slid back down, but two days later several wallets pushed it back up on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
Fourteen hours after the initial bet on Paxton, another wallet bet $1,240, which brought Paxton's price back up from 52 cents to 63 cents.
The ACDC report states that a manipulated price can ripple through the information ecosystem as if it reflected real momentum.
“The two large, five-figure trades by one or two wallets that will eventually run contrary to the polls, political momentum and eventual outcome — such as the 7 February trades for Hunt and against Paxton — are difficult to explain without a market-moving motivation,”
Opinion: Prediction markets become America's new national pastime
Bill Simmons claims he did not realize proxy betting was illegal in Massachusetts.
FanDuel's Sportsbook is illegal in California.
Bill Simmons had his daughter's boyfriend place FanDuel bets for him from Massachusetts.
LeBron James teases Polymarket partnership
ESPN reported James signed a two-year, $8 million contract with the 76ers with a player option.
NBA rules restrict players' financial interests in companies that offer league-related wagering or similar products.
The video shows James in the elevator of Polymarket's headquarters heading to the company's sports floor.
New Jersey takes legal battle over prediction markets to Supreme Court
The 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in April that federal regulators retain exclusive oversight of prediction markets, including sports-related contracts.
Connecticut sued Kalshi to block alleged unlicensed sports gambling.
Prediction platforms have argued their sports-related contracts are a type of derivative called a swap, solely regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Ex-White House teleprompter operator ordered to pay $172,000 for Trump speech bets
In July, the White House Management Office sent a letter to aides telling them not to place bets on prediction markets.
The CFTC said Perez misappropriated his prior knowledge of Trump's speeches to place bets in breach of his duty of trust and confidence.
Kalshi used account data to identify the user as a federal employee operating White House teleprompters and reported the activity to the regulator.
Ex-White House teleprompter operator fined for Trump speech bets
Federal prosecutors indicted US soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke for allegedly making a $400,000 bet on Polymarket about whether Nicolás Maduro would be removed from Venezuela's presidency.
Trump has advocated against individual US states regulating prediction markets and argued the CFTC should carry out that function.
A White House teleprompter operator named Gabriel Perez was fined $172,000 by federal regulators for using inside knowledge to bet on Donald Trump's speeches.
US appeals court rules against prediction markets, sets up Supreme Court fight
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals rejected requests for injunctive relief from prediction market platforms Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood against the Nevada Gaming Control Board.
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals concluded that sports-related event contracts are not swaps because they are sports bets.
Robinhood stated that it plans to appeal the Ninth Circuit's decision.
Donald Trump Jr. told Republican state attorneys not to fight prediction markets
Trump Jr. said event contract exchanges should be overseen by federal authorities.
Forty-four attorneys general wrote to the CFTC stating the federal agency cannot oversee sports-related event contracts.
Trump Jr. serves as a partner at 1789 Capital.
CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on prediction market risks
The CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee consists of more than 30 members and includes executives from Robinhood, Nasdaq, and CME.
The state of New York sued Kalshi in July, alleging the company operated as an illegal gambling operator.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is currently the sole member of the agency's commission board.
“We've also protected federally regulated prediction markets from rogue state attorneys general like Letitia James, who seek to nullify federal law and drive these markets offshore to unregulated and foreign venues,”
Kalshi Prediction Market Gauges Year-End Bitcoin Price Projections
Before Wednesday, Kalshi traders viewed it as most likely that bitcoin would finish the year around $66,000.
Kalshi contracts ask traders to place trades on whether bitcoin will trade within specific $5,000 ranges at midnight on January 1, 2027.
Kalshi resolves its bitcoin contracts using price data provided by CF Benchmarks.
Hedge funds prepare major entry into prediction markets
Cantor Fitzgerald will act as a broker, organizing block trades on Kalshi's event contracts for its clients
The Wall Street Journal first reported on the Cantor-Kalshi arrangement
Cantor Fitzgerald announced it will be one of the first investment firms providing clients institutional trading on prediction market platform Kalshi
“Prediction markets are growing rapidly, but institutional participation has not kept pace because investors have lacked the ability to transact at scale on a regulated exchange. The liquidity is here,”