Anti-Corruption Data Collective
ON THE RECORD · 6 verbatim quotes · every quote source-verified
“But the routine quoting of prediction market prices”
Anti-Corruption Data Collective · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-09
The ACDC report noted that news media's routine quoting of prediction market prices for the Texas race created an opening for perception buying.
“for the Texas race provided an opening for perception buying that also explains these large trades.”
Anti-Corruption Data Collective · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-09
The ACDC report argued that media quoting of prediction market prices for the Texas race provided an opening for perception buying that explains large trades.
“Not only do the conditions exist in the majority of markets, it may have already happened.”
Anti-Corruption Data Collective · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-09
The ACDC report warned that conditions for manipulation exist in most prediction markets and may have already been exploited.
“It's possible these wallets were unlucky risky bettors believing their bet and position would be profitable rather than active manipulators,”
Anti-Corruption Data Collective · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-09
The ACDC report acknowledged that the wallets making large contrary trades could have been unlucky bettors rather than deliberate manipulators.
“The two large, five-figure trades by one or two wallets that will eventually run contrary to the polls, political momentum and eventual outcome — such as the 7 February trades for Hunt and against Paxton — are difficult to explain without a market-moving motivation,”
Anti-Corruption Data Collective · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-09
The ACDC report analyzed large trades on Polymarket that moved prices contrary to polls and eventual outcomes, including February 7 trades involving Wesley Hunt and Ken Paxton.
“A manipulated price can ripple through the information ecosystem as if it reflected real momentum,”
Anti-Corruption Data Collective · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-09
The ACDC report found that manipulation of prediction markets may have already occurred and that manipulated prices can spread through the information ecosystem.