2026 global bond market selloff

Nicholas Colas called the Thursday plunge in yields an important signal.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has seen $1.14 billion in fresh investor cash over the past month.

Treasurys saw $5.4 billion in inflows over the past week according to data compiled by BofA.

Energy stocks benefited from surging oil prices in the third quarter as the U.S.-Iran war continued.

Equities account for 72% of the sovereign wealth fund's investments.

The fund's first-half profit was nearing $185 billion, a record.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC that demand for neoclouds is off the charts but capital was scarce.

Earlier in October, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields reached their highest levels in more than two decades.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 5% for the first time since September 23.

Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Oracle have issued a total of about $228.4 billion in bonds year to date as of Oct. 20, according to LSEG.

The United States budget deficit has grown to $2 trillion for fiscal 2026.

Rick Rieder sees the best opportunity right now in investment-grade corporate bonds.

Lecornu used emergency legislation to force this year's budget through without parliamentary approval in February.

The yield on France's benchmark 10-year government bond briefly crossed the 5% threshold for the first time since 2002 on Wednesday.

French finance minister Roland Lescure said the government was willing to bypass parliament again to force next year's budget through.

The S&P Global Composite PMI Flash was scheduled to be released on Friday.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield fell more than 3 basis points to 5.435% on Tuesday.

The 10-year Treasury yield was down more than 2 basis points at 5.115% on Tuesday.

Jason Tuvey said a decision to hold rates on Wednesday could revive concerns among investors that Bank Indonesia is kowtowing to political pressure.

Bank Indonesia has held its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate at 5.75% since June.

Citi's Helmi Arman said a rate hike would aim to stop equity outflows spilling into bonds and prompting capital flight by domestic investors.

Hedge funds have gross assets of about $13 trillion, according to the IMF.

Breeden was speaking on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

Bank of England deputy governor Sarah Breeden said hedge funds' increased presence in global bond markets makes the likelihood of a broader market shock greater than it was.

Beer helps manage the iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF).

Geraci said bonds still have a place for diversifying a portfolio.

Managed futures exchange-traded funds can go long and short across global markets.

Nearly $27 million in premium was traded across nine VIX call contracts, approximately 36% of the total premium traded in VIX options on the day.

One trader bought 12,500 of the November 18, 23-strike VIX calls for $1.1 million.

CoreWeave lost 13%.

If rates overshoot CBO expectations by 1.5 points, that adds $6 trillion in deficits.

The 10-year Treasury yield has risen 123 basis points since the end of February through Wednesday's close, when it traded at 5.19%.

The overall U.S. debt hit $40 trillion in 2026.

SK Hynix shares plunged nearly 11%.

SoftBank is a big investor in OpenAI.

Deutsche Bank analysts led by Jim Reid said markets have had an incredibly tumultuous 24 hours due to a strong US CPI print and mounting fears around the AI trade.

The 10-year Treasury note yield fell on Wednesday.

The fed funds rate is currently 3.75% to 4.00%.

Christopher Rupkey said the central bank may need to raise rates higher and keep them there for longer in 2027.

Fannie Mae previously forecast a rate of 6.8% for the fourth quarter and 6.7% for all of next year.

Fannie Mae economists predict much higher mortgage rates through the end of 2026 and into 2027.

Fannie Mae forecasts the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage to be 7.5% through all of next year.

Seven-year ARMs from 2019 facing reset face a median adjusted rate of 6.06%, translating to a median payment increase of $1,080.

Lenders are required to alert borrowers between 210 and 240 days before the first payment at the adjusted rate is due, according to the CFPB.

Of the 3.1 million outstanding ARMs, 2.05 million are still in their initial fixed period and 1.05 million have matured into their adjustable phase.

The 10-year Treasury note yield fell more than 5 basis points to 5.1937%.

West Texas Intermediate futures for November delivery were 1.49% lower at $92.34 a barrel by 3:50 a.m. E.T.

September's annual inflation rate is expected to come in at 3.7%, up from August's 3.4%.

The IMF said that hedge funds' share of U.S. Treasuries rose to about 9% in 2025 from about 4% in 2022.

The IMF urged debt managers to lengthen maturities.

The International Monetary Fund warned that government bond yields could rise in a disorderly fashion.

Traders on Kalshi think the September CPI will show a 3.6% increase year over year.

Kalshi inflation-related contracts are resolved using official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The FactSet consensus estimate for September CPI is 3.6% year over year.

U.S. crude oil is up 56% from a year earlier.

Russia will supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel initially, followed by an additional 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons immediately thereafter, according to Trump.

Michael Lynch said the deal for Russian diesel is unlikely to lower prices because existing Russian customers will seek supply elsewhere.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is making a bullish call on high-quality fixed income.

Priya Misra co-manages the JPMorgan Core Plus Bond Fund ETF (JCPB).

The JPMorgan Core Plus Bond Fund ETF has almost $16 billion in assets under management.

Michael Arone said the high-yield market is 'flashing yellow' but is 'far from red.'

BB bonds make up over 60% of the high-yield market, compared to 38% prior to the global financial crisis, according to Kelley Gerrity of Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

Credit spreads in the overall high-yield market reached 346 basis points in March.

Indirect bidders purchased 72.3% of the 30-year Treasury auction, above the 10-auction average of 68%.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.229% on Thursday after reaching its highest level since 2002.

President Donald Trump said the U.S. will not attack Iran until after the November midterm election.

Refinance applications dropped 8% for the week and were 56% lower than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates rose to the highest level in nearly three years last week.

Purchase mortgage applications declined 2% for the week and were 15% lower than the same week one year ago.

US stocks fell on Wednesday morning as global bond yields rose.

The Fed minutes stated that most participants assessed another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end.

Bitcoin fell to $83,000 amid forced liquidations over the past 24 hours.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield rose 8.3 basis points to 5.724%.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was up 7.4 basis points at 5.345%.

Traders are pricing in a 78% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting.

Together, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta represented nearly 17% of the S&P 500 heading into this week.

Jim Cramer said that a handful of AI giants are masking pressure from surging Treasury yields, creating an unusual disconnect between the stock and bond markets.

Meta rose 1.9% on Monday.

Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note that the highly unsettled bond market makes incoming US data and Fed communication particularly relevant.

Traders are pricing in a nearly 82% chance of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at its next meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury was down less than 1 basis point at 5.273%.

In BMO's survey, 42% of respondents said housing would be the first area to show clear signs of stress from rising real rates.

TD Securities strategists Gennadiy Goldberg and Molly Brooks said a fiscal apocalypse is not upon us just yet.

U.S. government net interest costs were estimated at about $1.05 trillion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2026.

Pull-down kitchen faucets, with an average selling price of $147, have seen sales decline about 3%.

Philip Odelfelt, CEO of Datavations, said lower-ticket items like kitchen faucets are down just a few percent year-over-year, but declines accelerate in the $300-to-$700 range for items like bathtubs and shower stalls.

Mark Ratchford, a business school professor at Tulane University, said people are skipping cosmetic improvements and only doing work they need to do.

The August jobs count was revised lower to a gain of 133,000.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had predicted an 84,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls and unemployment to remain steady.

The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest levels since 2002 earlier in the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 250 points, or 0.5%, to close at 51,176.46 on Friday.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% last month.

Fed funds futures trading suggests a 77% likelihood the Federal Reserve will stand pat at its October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Annual inflation in the euro zone rose to 3.8% in September.

Energy inflation reached its highest level since January 2023.

Core inflation came in at 2.5%.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) posted its best intraday rally in at least a month on Thursday.

Options volume in the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) reached 10 times the 30-day average on Thursday, according to CBOE LiveVol data and SpotGamma.

The 10-year rate went over 5.3% before a rally occurred.

The article recommends buying the XLU November 40/43 Call Vertical for an $0.85 net debit.

The Utilities Select Sector ETF (XLU) gave back its Q1 outperformance as rising interest rates weighed on rate-sensitive sectors.

The earnings multiples of independent power producers like Constellation, NRG, and Vistra have compressed 2 to 8 turns from their recent peaks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.9% in the third quarter.

Nvidia shares gained more than 14% over the quarter.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held above 5% and the 30-year yield traded above 5.5%.

The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.91%.

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.6702%, its highest level since July 2002.

The UK's 10-year yield rose to 5.483%.

Gold futures slumped 3.34% to $4,176.80.

Spot silver had shed 4.92% to $61.11.

Harmony Gold Mining slumped 7.49%.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield was up more than 3 basis points at 5.219%.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield reached its highest rate since June 2007 on Thursday before easing.

German 10-year Bund yields were holding steady at 3.6277%.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ordered a temporary halt to all data center-related environmental permits.

Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft have committed to hundreds of billions of dollars this year in capital expenditures, with an expected increase coming in 2027.

The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 5.17%, up about 1 percentage point since the start of the year.

The 10-year Treasury yield leapt to 5.23% on Friday, its highest level since 2007.

The federal government is issuing debt to finance a large deficit while companies are borrowing heavily to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The 10-year Treasury yield was trading just below 4.8% earlier in the month.

The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields were last seen up slightly at 5.163% and 5.488%, respectively.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that "a lot more details" on negotiations between the U.S. and China are going to be released Monday.

Fed funds futures trading suggests a roughly 64% likelihood of a rate hike in October, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

When Treasury yields rise, prices of existing Treasurys tend to fall.

Dominic J. Pappalardo said borrowing costs for mortgages go up almost in lockstep with the 10-year Treasury yield.

Dominic J. Pappalardo said higher interest rates benefit savers and investors just as much as they're harming spenders.

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said in a speech on Wednesday that "further policy adjustments" can be expected to bring inflation down to target.

The 2-year note yield was down more than 3 basis points at 4.856%.

Durable goods orders in August came in relatively unchanged.

Fed funds futures trading suggests a nearly 71% likelihood that the Federal Reserve lifts its key rate once more in October, per the CME FedWatch tool.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for a third straight session on Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 161.61 points, or 0.31%, to 51,349.98.

Kevin Gordon said forward earnings estimates for small caps continue to look solid.

At the start of September 2026, the Russell 2000 was up 20% year to date.

The 269-strike put expiring Oct. 16 needs a 4% selloff to make money.

In the second quarter of 2026, the average interest rate on a new-car loan was 6.35%, down from 6.79% a year earlier.

In the second quarter, the average interest rate on a used-car loan was about 11.2%, down from 11.57% in the same period in 2025.

The 10-year Treasury note yield jumped to 5.15%, a level last hit in 2006.

S&P box spreads yield an income of more than 4.4% using contracts expiring in three months.

The Treasury department said in July it is eyeing investment strategies aimed at dodging U.S. tax rules.

Three-month Treasuries yield under 4 percent.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh voted to raise interest rates.

Fed Governor Michael Barr said more rate increases would likely be needed.

The CRFB said that if elevated rates persist over the coming decade, interest costs would rise to an annual $2.7 trillion.

The 30-year JGB yield rose nearly 7 bps to 4.134%.

The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose 8 basis points to 3.055%, the highest since August 1996.

The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to a 19-year high.

Clare Lombardelli delivered her remarks at an economic conference in Warsaw, Poland.

Rachel Reeves built up the £24bn headroom at the time of the spring statement in March.

The Bank of England is expecting a 24% rise in the quarterly energy price cap in January if oil prices remain high.

NBC News has not confirmed the Reuters report on U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Germany's 10-year bund notched its highest yield since 2009.

The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond soared as high as 5.47%, a level not seen in 22 years.

The 10-year Treasury note yield hit its highest level since July 2007.

John Williams said it would be reasonable to expect another Fed interest rate hike by the end of the year.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield reached a peak around 5.44%, marking its highest level since 2004.

Anthony Smith said a 7% mortgage rate handle is as much psychological as mathematical.

Freddie Mac reported the mortgage rate surpassing 7%.

Two-thirds of registered voters rate the economy as extremely important to their vote.

Global debt rose by $10 trillion in the first half of the year to exceed $365 trillion.

The OECD said that rising bond yields showed the need for greater efforts to contain and reallocate government spending, improve public sector efficiency and strengthen revenues.

Yields on medium- and long-term government bonds issued by the U.S., Japan, France and the U.K. hit their highest levels in more than a decade.

Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins warned of an increased likelihood that U.S. inflation will remain notably above policymakers' 2% target.

Oil prices fell overnight after U.S. and Iranian delegations held talks at the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were up marginally at around $90 a barrel.

Government debt costs leaped higher due to higher inflation pressures, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, and a weak 5-year notes auction.

A typical 30-year mortgage rate is at 7.26%.

The Atlanta Fed is tracking GDP growth of 5.1% for the third quarter.

The S&P 500 was up about 13% year-to-date.

The IRS wash-sale rule disallows a tax deduction for a loss on the sale of a security if a substantially identical security is purchased within a 61-day window.

The 10-year treasury yield was hovering around 5%.

The 30-year Treasury yield fell more than 2 basis points to 5.269%.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 2% to $93.50 per barrel.

Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will deliver remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Treasury Market Conference on Tuesday.

U.K. 10-year gilts were down by 5 basis points.

The 10-year Treasury note yield hit a 19-year high of 5.041% last week.

Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday.