Benjamin D. Jones

“A dovish speech helps the front end of the curve but risks the long end and inflation expectations moving higher. It would also reinforce dollar weakness, gold strength, and curve steepening in my opinion.”

Benjamin D. Jones · said 2026-08-26 · reported 2026-08-26

Jones said a dovish speech would help the front end of the curve but risk the long end and inflation expectations moving higher.

“Long-term yields are being pushed higher by several forces: resilient nominal growth, persistent inflation risk, large sovereign financing needs, rising Japanese yields, and competition for capital from the AI investment boom.”

Benjamin D. Jones · said 2026-08-26 · reported 2026-08-26

Jones said long-term yields are being pushed higher by several forces including resilient nominal growth and persistent inflation risk.

“Regardless of his comments, I think the path of least resistance is for higher U.S. yields,”

Benjamin D. Jones · said 2026-08-26 · reported 2026-08-26

Jones said he thinks the path of least resistance is for higher U.S. yields regardless of Warsh's comments.

“If Warsh at all shares that view then the more likely outcome is a speech that errs on the hawkish side,”

Benjamin D. Jones · said 2026-08-26 · reported 2026-08-26

Jones said that if Warsh shares the view that officials are uncomfortable with higher long-term yields, a more hawkish speech is likely.

“I will be listening for three things: how he balances growth against inflation, whether he acknowledges the rise in term premia, and whether he thinks financial innovation is changing the transmission of monetary policy,”

Benjamin D. Jones · said 2026-08-26 · reported 2026-08-26

Jones said he will be listening for how Warsh balances growth against inflation and other factors at Jackson Hole.