“The more dangerous window opens after November 3 [US midterms], when those electoral constraints disappear. Both militaries are preparing for that possibility. The greatest immediate risk is an uncontrolled escalation in Hormuz that forces Washington’s hand before either leader is politically ready,”

Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-19

Krieg said the more dangerous window opens after the November 3 US midterms when electoral constraints disappear.