Andreas Krieg
ON THE RECORD · 20 verbatim quotes · every quote source-verified
“diversified network of security partnerships”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-20
Krieg said Gulf states want a diversified network of security partnerships rather than a full replacement of the US by France.
“France can offer defence industrial cooperation, technology transfers, joint production, training and greater operational autonomy,”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-20
Krieg outlined what France can offer Gulf states in terms of defence cooperation and greater operational autonomy.
“escalation in one theatre can rapidly affect another”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-20
Krieg cautioned that escalation in one theatre, such as around the Strait of Hormuz, can rapidly affect another.
“symptomatic of a much larger geopolitical transformation”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-20
Krieg explained that Macron's visit to the region reflects a broader geopolitical shift.
“French air defence systems intercepting missiles would directly undermine the Houthis’ military strategy. If French forces are subsequently targeted, Paris could face pressure to retaliate. What begins as a defensive deployment could gradually become an operational commitment with much wider implications.”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-20
Krieg warned that French defensive deployments against Houthi attacks could escalate into wider operational commitments.
“France is particularly attractive because it possesses genuine expeditionary capabilities and has demonstrated a willingness to defend Gulf partners without joining Washington’s offensive campaign against Iran,”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-20
Krieg said France is attractive to Gulf states because it can defend partners without joining Washington's offensive campaign against Iran.
“Consider the protection of Saudi energy infrastructure against Houthi attacks,”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-20
Krieg cited the protection of Saudi energy infrastructure as an example of France's central strategic dilemma in the region.
“For countries such as the UAE and Qatar, this means progressively reducing their dependence on American weapons systems, spare parts, intelligence and political permissions.”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-20
Krieg explained that for countries like the UAE and Qatar, French defence cooperation means reducing reliance on American weapons systems.
“We are witnessing the gradual emergence of a post-American Middle East in which Washington remains militarily powerful but increasingly struggles to exercise the political leadership it once enjoyed,”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-20
Krieg told Al Jazeera that Washington retains military power but is losing political leadership in the Middle East.
“Europe and the Gulf now face a remarkably similar strategic challenge. Both have become excessively dependent on American security decisions, and both are discovering that this dependence carries substantial economic and political costs.”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-20
Krieg described how Europe and the Gulf share a strategic challenge of excessive dependence on American security decisions.
“Its military presence has consequently acquired greater political significance.”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-20
Krieg concluded that France's military presence in the Gulf has acquired greater political significance.
“The more dangerous window opens after November 3 [US midterms], when those electoral constraints disappear. Both militaries are preparing for that possibility. The greatest immediate risk is an uncontrolled escalation in Hormuz that forces Washington’s hand before either leader is politically ready,”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-19
Krieg said the more dangerous window opens after the November 3 US midterms when electoral constraints disappear.
“His endorsement reinforces the military threat underpinning that strategy. But it does not mean diplomacy is finished. Trump still wants a deal he can present as a victory. The danger is that Tehran increasingly believes it must escalate to improve its bargaining position.”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-19
Krieg argued that Trump's endorsement reinforces the military threat behind his strategy but does not mean diplomacy is finished.
“Netanyahu’s problems are structural, involving fragmented right-wing parties, disillusioned ultra-Orthodox voters and the legacy of October 7. Trump may mobilise reluctant Likud voters, potentially worth a seat or two in a close contest, but he cannot manufacture the coalition majority Netanyahu currently lacks,”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-19
Krieg told Al Jazeera that Netanyahu's problems are structural and Trump cannot manufacture the coalition majority he lacks.
“The naval blockade is hurting Iran considerably and Washington believes time is working in its favour. Trump’s calculation is that Iran will eventually accept nuclear concessions and reopen Hormuz, without Washington having to offer significant concessions first,”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-19
Krieg argued that the naval blockade is hurting Iran and Washington believes time is working in its favour.
“inadvertently created the political space in Iraq through which the IRGC built much of its post-2003 regional network”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-19
Krieg discussed how the US invasion of Iraq inadvertently benefited Iran's IRGC.
“That is where the historical record should make Washington extremely cautious. In Iran, the United States has repeatedly discovered that removing one strategic problem can create a much larger one.”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-19
Krieg warned about the risks of US intervention in Iran creating larger problems.
“The US has to distinguish between degrading specific Iranian capabilities and trying to redesign the Iranian political system,”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-19
Krieg argued the US needs strategic discipline regarding Iran.
“In that sense, 1953 succeeded operationally and failed historically.”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-19
Krieg summarized the historical impact of the 1953 coup.
“The 1953 coup removed Mossadegh and preserved the Shah, but it also permanently associated the monarchy with Western intervention,”
Andreas Krieg · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-19
Krieg commented on the long-term consequences of the 1953 coup against Mosaddegh.