Trump-Federal Reserve interest rate policy tension 2026
One page that accretes the verified record as the story develops. Every fact keeps its date and its sources.
Fed's Warsh says AI path will be bumpy but ultimately good for wealth
Kevin Warsh is the Federal Reserve Chairman.
Warsh warned the road for AI will be "very bumpy" and its near-term effect on jobs is unknown.
Warsh declined to say what he will do at the coming meeting, saying "I don't prejudge meetings."
US wholesale prices jump 6.3% annually in September
Retail sales grew 0.8% in September.
Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast the producer price index to advance 0.6% on the month and 5.5% annually.
The core PPI, excluding food and energy, added 0.7% on the month and 5% over the 12-month period.
U.S. producer prices post biggest gain in 4.5 years
Gasoline prices rose 20.3% in September.
Producer goods prices increased 2.6% in September, the largest increase since the government started tracking the series in December 2009.
Retail sales rose 0.8% in September after jumping 1.3% in August.
Lisa Cook's lawyer questions fairness of Trump committee as president calls her 'automatic no vote'
The Supreme Court in late June blocked Trump's first attempt to remove Cook, ruling that she was not given sufficient due process under federal law.
Cook denies the mortgage fraud allegations against her.
An attorney for Lisa Cook voiced doubts that President Donald Trump's committee investigating mortgage fraud allegations against Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook would be fair and objective.
US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September; annual inflation at 3.7%
Food prices were flat in September.
The Federal Reserve approved a quarter percentage point interest rate hike in September.
The 12-month inflation rate was 3.7% in September.
US inflation rises to 3.7% in September 2026
CPI has registered approximately 65 consecutive months of annual readings above 2%.
The one-year inflation outlook rose to 3.9% in September, its highest reading in more than three years, according to the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations.
US stock markets trended downward following the inflation report, with the Nasdaq falling 0.8% and the S&P 500 dropping 0.6%.
“Inflation expectations have to be anchored for monetary policy to affect the economy in an effective and predictable manner,”
Fed's Williams says rate hikes may not be needed in 2027
John Williams said that overall inflation for 2027 should be near the Fed's target of 2% on an annual basis.
Williams is a permanent voting member of the FOMC.
The personal consumption expenditures price index showed a 12-month increase of 3.4% in August, or 3% excluding food and energy prices.
Inflation data expected to show accelerating price increases
President Donald Trump last week announced loosened diesel restrictions on Russia in a bid to juice the global oil trade.
Economic confidence across political affiliation has fallen in 2026 according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment data.
Economists forecast the producer price index will rise 0.6% from August to September and 5.5% on a 12-month basis.
“Ultimately, we have low confidence in the timing of the Fed's next move, but more conviction on the direction of travel.”
Fed's Hammack says higher rates may be needed to prevent inflationary mindset
Beth Hammack is a voting member of the Fed's policymaking committee.
Traders priced in a more than 78% likelihood that the central bank keeps rates unchanged at its policy meeting later in October.
Beth Hammack said persistently elevated inflation raises the risks of an inflationary mindset becoming entrenched in the economy.
Trump creates committee to probe mortgage fraud allegations against Fed Governor Lisa Cook
Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the majority that a Federal Reserve Governor is not entitled to an audience with the President or a full judicial trial, but is entitled to notice of charges and an opportunity to be heard.
The Supreme Court ruled in June that Cook could continue serving while her legal challenge continued, finding that Trump failed to provide her procedural protections she was entitled to under law.
The committee will hold an in-person hearing at the White House on Nov. 5 to consider the evidence and allegations against Cook.
“In light of the President's repeated statements that he has already decided to fire Governor Cook — regardless of the facts and evidence — we have grave doubts that this 'hearing' is a legitimate one that would conform to the law. But if it is anything close to objective, the conclusion will be that Governor Cook did not commit mortgage fraud, leaving no cause to remove her from the Federal Reserve Board,”
Trump announces committee to investigate Federal Reserve's Lisa Cook
The hearing is scheduled for November 5.
Keith Sonderling is the acting director of the Office of Government Ethics.
Cook denies the mortgage fraud allegations.
Trump launches investigation and establishes committee targeting Fed Governor Lisa Cook
The Supreme Court's majority opinion in Trump v. Cook was written by Chief Justice John Roberts.
Before joining the Fed, Cook taught at Harvard University and Stanford University and served on Barack Obama's council of economic advisers.
Cook's legal team has maintained that the White House is cherrypicking facts and that any claims of fraud are based on unrelated clerical errors.
Trump establishes panel to probe Fed governor Lisa Cook
President Trump signed an order on Friday directing the attorney general and other top federal officials to establish a committee to investigate Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook.
An inspector general's report found no wrongdoing regarding Powell and the construction project.
The presidential memorandum states the committee will investigate allegations that Cook made false statements in connection with one or more mortgage instruments.
Treasury's Bessent hires Judy Shelton as adviser
Shelton holds a Ph.D. in business administration from the University of Utah.
Judy Shelton has been appointed a counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Neither Shelton nor Zervos require Senate approval.
Fed survey: one-year inflation outlook hits highest since May 2023
Markets largely expect the FOMC to keep benchmark rates steady at its October meeting.
The five-year inflation expectation was unchanged at 3%.
The survey found expected household spending growth of 5.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from August and the highest since May 2023.
Federal Reserve minutes show officials expect another rate hike this year
The Fed's next rate decisions are scheduled for Oct. 28 and Dec. 9.
Of the 18 FOMC officials who submitted forecasts, 16 said they expected another rate increase this year.
The FOMC indicated one more rate hike in 2026 and then none in 2027.
September 2026 U.S. jobs report: only 29,000 jobs added, unemployment rises to 4.2%
The Nasdaq was up 1.5 percent in midday trading following the jobs report.
The midterm election is scheduled for November 3.
Wages grew by 3 percent in September, marking the slowest annual wage increase in five years.
DoJ declines to reopen investigation into former Fed chair Jay Powell
Blanche told Bloomberg News that if the new review found any evidence of criminal wrongdoing, the justice department could investigate.
Powell said at his final press conference as Fed chief in April that he would not leave the central bank's board until the investigation is over.
Powell has remained at the Fed as a governor since stepping down as chair in May.
DOJ says it will not reopen criminal probe into former Fed Chair Powell
The DOJ closed its investigation rather than appeal the judge's ruling.
The Department of Justice will not reopen its criminal investigation into former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Kevin Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman in May.
Trump could target three Fed governors; removal may be difficult
Powell can stay on the Fed as a governor through January 2028.
Powell said in March he would remain on the Fed until the legal threat was well and truly over.
A preliminary report by Starling Advisory Group faulted the Fed's bank supervisors for not acting on risks to Silicon Valley Bank as much as a year ahead of its failure.
Warsh's Fed regime change faces resistance
The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.7 trillion.
Inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for more than five and a half years.
Warsh has shortened the news conference that occurs after FOMC meetings.
Analysis: financial calamity risk from rapid rate rises
JPMorgan's trading desk advised investors to keep an eye on bond volatility, calling it a bigger headwind to stocks than absolute levels.
Two weeks prior, the 10-year Treasury yield was below 4.8%.
John Roque is the head of technical analysis at 22V Research.
Philadelphia Fed's Anna Paulson says modest rate moves likely ahead
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said she and her colleagues may need to raise interest rates further to bring inflation back to target.
The Federal Open Market Committee raised benchmark borrowing rates by a quarter percentage point one week before Paulson's remarks.
Longer-duration Treasury yields reached highs not seen since 2004.
Surging Treasury yields pose new problem for Kevin Warsh and the Fed
Warsh has emphasized letting markets help guide policy, a reversal from central bank policy since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Warsh took the Fed chair job in May.
Pingle speculated that Warsh's views more closely align with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack than anyone else on the FOMC.
New York Fed's Williams says another rate hike reasonable by year-end
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins warned on Wednesday there was an increased likelihood that inflation will stay notably above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point earlier this month, taking the overnight funds rate to a target range of 3.75%-4%.
Williams was speaking at the London Macro Policy Forum.
30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to 7.45%
Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate began rising at the start of the war with Iran.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 7.45% on Thursday according to Mortgage News Daily.
Fed hike expectations rise after Barr comments and hot inflation
Barr said he supported last week's rate increase along with the other 11 FOMC voters.
Barr said the committee was out of position on rates and made an adjustment in the right direction.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Boston Fed President Susan Collins both indicated they see a need for further hikes.
Fed's Collins warns inflation could be notably higher
Susan Collins backed the Federal Reserve's quarter-point interest rate hike last week.
In 2025, Susan Collins voted with the majority at all eight FOMC meetings, backing a hold in July and quarter-point cuts in September, October and December.
European Central Bank executive board member Philip R. Lane said that a second wave of rising energy prices is likely to keep inflation higher for longer.
“The situation won't go back to normal, but there will be some improvement compared with the current situation. That said, there's a lot of uncertainty around that baseline.”
Nearly 10% of borrowers chose riskier mortgages as rates top 7%
During the first years of the pandemic, the ARM share of mortgage applications was barely 3%.
Refinance applications were at their lowest level since February 2025.
Applications to refinance a home loan dropped 3% for the week and were 62% lower than the same week one year ago.
Higher interest rates squeeze younger and lower-income households
Chairman Kevin Warsh said during a news conference that inflation has been too high for too long.
Mark Zandi said wealthier households are generally better positioned to absorb higher interest rates because they are less likely to need to borrow and often have low-rate mortgage loans locked in during the pandemic.
A 25-basis-point hike will cost credit card borrowers an additional $2 billion in interest charges over the next 12 months, according to an analysis by WalletHub.
“that doesn't mean there will not be painful short-term costs from higher borrowing rates and increased pressure on labor markets across a variety of demographic segments,”
Kevin Warsh eyed as potential economic stabilizer for US economy
Donald Trump demanded that interest rates be lowered to 1% or less.
Trump has not turned on Warsh in the way he did on his predecessor Jerome Powell.
The yield on the 10-year bond rose above 5%.
“LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!”
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and FOMC hike interest rates
Kevin Warsh previously served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from Feb. 24, 2006 to March 31, 2011.
The FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections forecasts another quarter-point hike to the federal funds target rate before the end of 2026.
Following the rate hike, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 1%.
Fed rate hike impact on consumer debt and savings
This was the Fed's first rate hike in three years.
A consumer carrying a $10,000 credit card balance could pay about $25 more in interest annually due to a quarter-point hike.
The federal funds rate stands at a range of 3.75% to 4%.
Kevin Warsh's remarks spark Wall Street speculation on Fed rate hikes
James Egelhof of BNP Paribas Securities wrote that the word 'accommodation' means 'stimulus' at the Fed.
Futures are implying a fed funds rate of 4.635% near the end of 2027.
Warsh described the rate hike as removing a dose of accommodation.
“With policy starting at a stimulative stance, a strong cyclical impulse, and persistent inflation, we think significant rate increases, perhaps more than the three we expect, may be necessary to stabilize the unemployment rate from below and prevent overheating next year,”
Fox News analysis: Fed rate hike impacts Trump midterm message
Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% goal.
The Fed's projections indicate that another rate increase could come later in the year if inflation remains elevated.
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, bringing it to a range of 3.75% to 4%.
Federal Reserve raises interest rates
President Trump has repeatedly called for lower interest rates.
Cramer said triple-digit oil prices stemming from the war in the Middle East are adding to inflationary pressure.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said inflation is too high and has been for too long.
Fed interest rate hike and analysis of Warsh, Trump, and inflation
The Consumer Price Index reached a three-year high of 4.2% in May.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 631 points, or 1.2%, on Wednesday.
Gasoline reached $4.44 a gallon, 38% higher than a year earlier, according to AAA data.
“The plain fact is that inflation is too high, and has been for too long,”
CNBC live updates: stock futures ahead of Fed rate decision
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 631.21 points, or 1.21%, to end at 51,461.90.
U.S. diesel prices hit $6 per gallon for the first time.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said inflation is too high and has been for too long.
Fed meeting live updates: rate hike expected for first time in three years
Kevin Warsh said inflation is too high and has been for too long.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said neither he nor his fellow policymakers are happy with the current pace of inflation.
Policymakers voted 12-0 in favor of the increase.
“The plain fact is that inflation is too high, and has been for too long,”
Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time in three years
Major US banks JP Morgan, KeyCorp, and BNY raised their prime lending rate to 7% from 6.75% on Wednesday.
The Fed's previous rate move was a cut in December 2025.
Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer said the rate increase would make everything more expensive.
Bizarre options volatility bet ahead of Fed rate decision
Alongside the 110-strike puts, $1.2 million of the 130-strike puts expiring Nov. 18 were purchased.
Around 10 a.m. Chicago time, someone purchased 563 110-strike VIX puts expiring Oct. 21 for $5.1 million.
Noel Smith, founder and chief investment officer of Convex Asset Management, said that someone short a bunch of calls may buy the puts and the futures to mitigate risk.
US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2023
Warsh said the Fed's decision to raise rates was not influenced by financial markets.
Employers added 162,000 workers in August according to a jobs report.
Saudi Arabia shut down a key pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
“Higher interest rates tend to weaken the economy … but if the market believes that there’s going to be a rate increase, it’s priced in already as prices move on news, so this won’t be news,”
Five key takeaways from Wednesday's Fed rate hike
Governor Christopher Waller was the subject of speculation that he might dissent from the rate decision.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 631 points after the Fed decision.
All 12 voters on the Federal Open Market Committee agreed with the rate hike decision, making the vote unanimous.
CNBC survey: Fed expected to hike at least two times over next year
59% of respondents say Fed Chairman Warsh has provided enough information on his economic and monetary policy views.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech in Jackson Hole.
A 46% plurality of respondents see the Democrats gaining control of the House while Republicans retain control of the Senate.
Fed Chair Warsh's credibility tested as Trump policies pressure rate hikes
President Trump said diesel prices have risen more because of the war in Ukraine than the war in Iran.
Diesel prices have surged to $6 a gallon.
The Fed has not raised rates since 2023 prior to the expected September hike.
Market debate over Federal Reserve rate hike decision
Adam Posen is the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Mester said neither Williams nor Waller is convinced a rate hike is appropriate.
Posen thinks the central bank is more likely than not to hold rates steady.
“This is why when you say 'I don't want to do forecasts,' it's self-defeating. Otherwise, you're just reacting to a backward-looking, inherently noisy reading.”
Fed expected to raise interest rates as inflation persists; Warsh faces tough confirmation battle
The market was pricing in a 90% likelihood that the federal funds rate would rise to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% following Wednesday's decision.
The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5% on Monday for the first time since 2023.
As of Monday afternoon, futures traders were pricing in a better than 92% probability of a rate increase this week.
“But we see a risk of a majority for two hikes if more participants than we expect see a hike this week as a normal response to higher oil prices and AI demand and the start of a series of rate hikes,”
Trump urges Federal Reserve to cut rates as market bets on Warsh hike
President Donald Trump called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
Donald Trump told reporters in Ireland that the United States should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world.
Markets largely expect a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Kevin Warsh and Federal Reserve rate hike debate
Gasoline prices jumped 3.9% in August 2026.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 5%.
All three stock indices shot higher after the CPI report.
30-year fixed mortgage rate tops 7% for first time in over a year
The rate increased 10 basis points from Wednesday.
Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily, said it had been a rough couple of days for the bond market.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose on Thursday as oil prices surged higher.
Trump pushes Fed for lower rates
President Donald Trump and senior administration officials urged the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates and even to lower its benchmark ahead of the September monetary policy meeting.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, said a Fed rate cut would cause already-rising long-term rates to rise substantially further.
Fed funds futures were pricing in a 60% chance the central bank will hike rates by one-quarter of a percentage point at the September meeting.
“Considering the duration of this inflationary episode, I believe sending a clear message via an interest rate hike is appropriate and in the best interest of the American people.”
White House pressures Kevin Warsh's Fed as Wall Street expects rate hike
Vice President JD Vance said Trump was determined to push rates down because it would help Americans afford a home.
Macquarie's David Doyle moved his baseline case for the first 25bps hike to September from December.
Kevin Warsh is Trump's pick to lead the Federal Reserve.
Trump pressures Warsh as Fed rate hike looms
Kevin Warsh said in his Jackson Hole speech that 54% of the 199 components in the PCE price measure had risen more than 3% over the previous 12 months.
The unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in August.
President Donald Trump threatened to halt trade with countries that run trade surpluses with the U.S. unless the Fed cuts interest rates.
Trump doubles down on threat to halt trade with top partners unless Fed cuts rates
Trump urged Fed chairman Kevin Warsh to cut rates.
Warsh said he is committed to bringing the inflation rate back down to the central bank's 2% target.
Trump said the U.S. should be at 1 percent or a half a percent interest rather than 4 percent.
Stocks fall after strong jobs report raises interest rate hike prospects
The government will release August inflation figures on Sept. 11.
U.S. stock markets will be closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.78% from 4.77% late Thursday.
Vance says Fed should lower interest rates
Trump is trying to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Kevin Warsh is Trump's handpicked Fed chair.
Vance said it would be nice to have help from the Federal Reserve in lowering interest rates.
Fed Governor Waller indicates support for holding rates steady in September
Waller conceded that inflation is "meaningfully above" the Fed's 2% target, but noted that recent trends suggest signs of disinflation.
Waller said he judges that policy is currently only slightly restricting aggregate demand.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said during a speech at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole that recent softer monthly inflation readings do not indicate that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.
Fed's Warsh warns inflation progress insufficient, hints at rate hikes at Jackson Hole
The 2-year Treasury yield jumped more than 12 basis points to 4.356% after Warsh's speech.
Following Warsh's remarks, CME FedWatch showed the probability of a rate hike in September rose to approximately 57-60%, up from about 35% the day before.
Warsh said that while summer PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they did not indicate that underlying trends had meaningfully improved.
“have work to do”
Fed Chairman Warsh expresses inflation concern at Jackson Hole, signals possible rate hike
Warsh said that none of the inflation measures are perfect but they all tell a similar story that inflation is running above the 2% target.
President Donald Trump picked Warsh as Fed chairman and has made clear his desire for lower rates.
Warsh said a Fed task force examining AI use and economic impact was encouraging but so far had no bearing on current policy decisions.