2026 El Niño event

A super El Niño from 1997 to 1998 set seasonal rainfall records in California and caused widespread flooding and mudslides.

El Niño is likely to peak in intensity in December.

NOAA meteorologist Jon Gottschalck said that some storms along the southern tier may turn northeast along the East Coast, potentially bringing heavy rain and snow to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Philippine rice prices were up 18% in September, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.

Governor Eli Remolona said the worst of El Niño's impact on prices is expected from November through February.

Philippine inflation accelerated to 7.2% in September from 6.1% in August, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.

Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate El Niño is likely to peak in December.

Dr Hausfather said the latest projections were astonishing and are likely to set new records by a remarkable amount.

Australian and US official forecasters are now using a Relative Ocean El Niño Index (RONI) to remove the additional warming signal from human-induced climate change.

Iowa State University researchers found that planting strips of native prairie between rows of corn and soy reduces sediment loss by 95%.

The United States will not be hit by El Niño nearly as hard as Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa.

Senate Republicans have insisted on decreasing funding for the Conservation Stewardship Program and the Environmental Quality Incentives Program.

Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch of S&P Global Market Intelligence said India's rural economy is likely to slow materially in 2026 and 2027.

The India Meteorological Department stated the rainfall was the fourth lowest since 2001 and the 13th driest since 1901.

India received its lowest rainfall in more than a decade from June to September.

In the historical Atlantic hurricane database, there has not been a year without a hurricane recorded since 1914.

Daily sea surface temperatures in a key region of the central-eastern Pacific are currently exceeding the previous record set during the very strong El Niño of 2015.

This year marks the latest date on record since the start of the satellite era where no hurricane has formed in the North Atlantic.

Nate Mantua is a research scientist at NOAA's Southwest Fisheries Science Center.

Kelvin waves are planetary in scale, spanning thousands of miles.

Researchers expect the influence of the kelvin wave to linger through the winter and into early next year.

Scientists project El Niño will push global land temperatures up 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months.

The report has not yet been peer-reviewed but uses peer-reviewed methodology.

The study projects 44% more days of extreme heat than would be expected in a normal year.

Researchers estimate that global land temperatures could climb by about 1.2 degrees Celsius, with extremely hot days 44 percent more frequent than in an average year.

Michael Greenstone, co-author of the study, said the findings show heat poses the greatest threat where temperatures are already high and incomes relatively low.

A University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab research report projects that more than 450,000 people will die from additional heat due to the unusually strong El Nino event over the next six months.

Heat in Africa's Sahel region, including Niger and Chad as well as Nigeria and Sudan, is likely to cause an additional 66,800 deaths.

Akshay Deoras, a senior research scientist at the University of Reading, said he is sceptical about the regional distributions in the report, noting that over 15,000 excess deaths projected for India until February 2027 is not convincing since it will not be summer for India when deadly dry heatwaves strike.

The current El Niño reached 2.7 degrees Celsius above average last month, and some forecasts say it could rise to 4 degrees Celsius when it peaks between November and December.

Tropical Storm Odalys could interact with Hurricane Polo off the coast of Mexico in a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara Effect.

A potential seventh storm threatening Hawaii was the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, which dissipated on Sept. 15.

Polo remained a relatively small cyclone, with hurricane-force winds estimated to extend about 30 nautical miles from the eye and tropical-storm-force winds about 80 nautical miles.

An El Niño is declared when temperatures in a key region of the Pacific Ocean are consistently 0.5C above normal.

The previous record for daily sea surface temperatures in the key Pacific region was 3.02C, set during the El Niño of 2015.

Until 22 September, the southwest monsoon in India had brought 15% less rain than normal according to the India Meteorological Department.

The emergency declaration directs state agencies to prepare roads and critical infrastructure.

Gavin Newsom approved emergency declarations for several California counties that recently experienced significantly damaging severe weather events.

According to the governor's office, there is a more than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event and a 75% chance of an event of historic strength this year.

Experts say wheat supplies in key exporting countries are at their second-lowest levels on record.

Harvested acreage for wheat in the US has been at its lowest levels since 1877.

Drought has overtaken the southern Great Plains.

August was recorded as the warmest month on Earth.

The article was published on September 17, 2026.

Ginger Zee reported on efforts to use drones to help make rain.

Heavy rain from Tropical Storm Edouard caused dangerous flash flooding and water rescues in eastern Texas, with rainfall totals topping 20 inches in some areas north of Beaumont.

No hurricanes had formed in the Atlantic Ocean 103 days into the 2026 hurricane season.

September 11 was previously the latest date for the first Atlantic hurricane, set by Gustav in 2002 and Humberto in 2013.

UNICEF said nearly 250 million children in 85 countries were affected by climate hazards in the previous year's analysis.

Heatwaves disrupted the schooling of approximately 50 million children in 2025.

More than 171 million students were affected globally by climate-related school disruptions in 2025.

July 2023 was the only other time monthly global temperatures hit 1.65 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Average temperatures worldwide in August 2026 temporarily soared to 1.65 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

August 2026 was the joint-hottest month on record globally.

Samantha Burgess said El Niño is adding heat to the system on top of decades of human-driven warming.

On Aug. 22, the daily average global sea surface temperature between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north reached 69.98 degrees Fahrenheit, the highest value on record according to Copernicus.

The planet's average surface air temperature in August 2026 was 62.5 degrees Fahrenheit.

Ilya Espino de Marotta took over as administrator of the Panama Canal Authority on Monday.

An average transit through the Panama Canal consumes about 200 million litres (about 53 million gallons) of water.

The Rio Indio reservoir project is expected to take five to six years to complete.

The drought and vanishing river are threatening communities and farmland.

Water levels in the Silugonggo River are plunging.

A prolonged dry spell has caused millions of fish to die in Indonesia's Silugonggo River in Central Java.

WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said the current El Niño has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies globally.

UN Secretary General António Guterres said El Niño was being supersized before our eyes.

Subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8 degrees Celsius above average during July and early August.

More than 202,000 hectares have burned in Indonesia's Kalimantan province, threatening wildlife and worsening air quality.

UN chief Antonio Guterres said El Niño is being supersized and the planet is in uncharted waters that are heating up.

El Niño is a natural phenomenon and is not caused by climate change, according to the WMO.

The loss of baitfish including anchovies and sardines in the Pacific region could cause deaths among seals and sea lions.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres compared the El Nino supercharged by global warming to pouring fuel on the fire of a warming world.

The World Food Programme forecasts 274 million people will face acute hunger by the end of 2027, an increase of 49 million from current levels.

Burgess noted that long-term fossil-fuel-driven warming has already raised ocean temperatures by 0.8C.

The record sea surface temperature in 2026 was set in August.

Burgess said the oceans will keep getting hotter until the current El Nino reaches its peak, which is expected sometime between November and January.

The Panama Canal will reduce daily transits from 40 to 34 and then to 32 between September 4 and September 15 in preparation for lower water levels ahead of El Niño.

The Panama Canal handles roughly 5 percent of global maritime trade and typically has the capacity for about 40 vessels per day.

The Panama Canal Authority announced daily transit caps due to concerns over drier weather conditions.

A drought in 2023 reduced Panama Canal traffic by roughly 36 percent.

Only three named storms have been recorded so far in the current Atlantic hurricane season.

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization warned that El Niño threatens tens of millions of people with crisis-level acute food insecurity.

Met Office forecasts indicate Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies could surpass 3C later in the year.

UK forecasters have warned that the impact of the current year's El Niño event is expected to be the most intense in more than a century.

Forecasts for the 2026 El Niño predict sea surface temperature increases exceeding 3 degrees Celsius in the coming months.

The United Kingdom recorded its hottest day of the year in mid-August with a temperature of 38.1C in west London.

The strongest El Niño in NOAA's record reached a RONI value of 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal during the 1982-83 event.

There is nearly a 70% chance this El Niño reaches an intensity not seen in NOAA records dating to 1950.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said there is a greater than 90% chance of a "very strong" El Niño developing during the fall and winter.

Forecast models suggest the developing El Niño could rival the Super El Niño of 1877.

A massive blizzard in January 2016 dropped 18 inches of snow on Washington, D.C.

Through August 13, the Atlantic hurricane season has seen three named tropical storms and no hurricanes.

Marine cloud brightening involves spraying particles into ocean clouds to reflect sunlight away from the Earth and back into space.

Keith said marine cloud brightening sprayers have spray rates that are at least a factor of a hundred too small for practical use.

James Haywood is a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Exeter who was not involved in the research.