scholars at the London Business School and Yale University

“accuracy comes from a minority of persistently skilled traders, around 3% of accounts”

scholars at the London Business School and Yale University · said date not stated · reported 2026-11-02

A working paper found that accuracy in prediction markets comes from a small minority of skilled traders.

“generates most of the volume but little of the information”

scholars at the London Business School and Yale University · said date not stated · reported 2026-11-02

The researchers found that the majority of traders generate volume but little information.