Rachel Ziemba

“The ongoing conflicts with Iran and Russia’s war with Ukraine are reinforcing each other, impairing oil product markets, but Middle Eastern flows are far from normal,”

Rachel Ziemba · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-05

Ziemba told Al Jazeera that the conflicts with Iran and Russia's war with Ukraine are reinforcing each other and impairing oil product markets.

“The damage to Russia’s refineries – and risk of more US sanctions on those who process Russian oil – are exacerbating the situation, but the underlying issue is still the volatile flows from the Middle East, the greater difficulty getting oil products out and the lower buffers in place,”

Rachel Ziemba · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-05

Ziemba added that damage to Russia's refineries and the risk of further US sanctions are exacerbating the situation, though the underlying issue remains volatile Middle East flows.

“While US refineries are running at full tilt and higher than normal, the global gaps remain,”

Rachel Ziemba · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-25

Ziemba told Al Jazeera that despite US refineries running at full capacity, global supply gaps persist due to disruptions in Russia and the Middle East.

“If implemented, it would lead to European and Asian product prices increasing as the buyers of US fuel, mostly in Latin America, scramble to find new supplies, bidding up supplies. European crack spreads could widen, and overall we might see more disruptions,”

Rachel Ziemba · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-25

Ziemba said an export ban would raise European and Asian product prices as buyers of US fuel scramble to find new supplies.

“It’s unlikely to help US consumers much given how it fails to solve underlying problems and could backfire if refineries hold on to production. The best way to address this is to end the conflicts prompting the shortages,”

Rachel Ziemba · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-25

Ziemba said restricting exports is unlikely to help US consumers and that the best way to address shortages is to end the conflicts causing them.

“Given these issues, the US may opt for a mixture of carrots and sticks aiming to incentivise refineries to keep producing, perhaps including penalties if they cut production. There may be voluntary export quotas rather than a formal ban, and there may be exemptions for countries that provide crude oil to the US, like Mexico,”

Rachel Ziemba · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-25

Ziemba suggested the US may opt for voluntary export quotas and exemptions rather than a formal ban.

“This is unlikely to have any material impact on global oil supplies in the next month or even the next year,”

Rachel Ziemba · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-29

Rachel Ziemba assessed the near-term effects of the agreement on global oil supplies.

“Politically, Canada is in need of a decent deal that [Carney] can sell at home,”

Rachel Ziemba · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-21

Rachel Ziemba discussed the domestic political necessity for Canadian leadership to secure an acceptable trade deal.

“But the economic benefits are as much to the US as Trump’s higher tariffs are adding to inflation for US consumers.”

Rachel Ziemba · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-21

Rachel Ziemba observed that higher tariffs negatively impact American consumers through inflation.