Olevs Nikers
ON THE RECORD · 5 verbatim quotes · every quote source-verified
“This looks less like spontaneous migration than a deliberate instrument, adjusted to test the neighbour perceived as most vulnerable,”
Olevs Nikers · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-09
Nikers characterized the migration pressure as a deliberate instrument aimed at testing Latvia as the most vulnerable neighbour.
“A sudden influx of several thousand people into Latgale in winter would become a humanitarian and political problem before it became a border-security problem,”
Olevs Nikers · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-09
Nikers warned about the humanitarian and political impact of a sudden influx of migrants into Latgale during winter.
“But sustained low-level pressure may be the more effective strategy. It creates exhaustion, budget pressure and friction between allies. Poland’s renewed controls on its border with Lithuania are already an example of this.”
Olevs Nikers · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-09
Nikers suggested that sustained low-level pressure may be a more effective destabilisation strategy for Belarus.
“2026 is increasingly about airspace and infrastructure. The most important change is that Russia has moved from targeting what we believe to targeting what we depend on: cables, grids, navigation and airspace. It is also increasingly operating below the Article 5 threshold.”
Olevs Nikers · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-09
Nikers described how Russian and Belarusian pressure has shifted toward targeting infrastructure, cables, grids, navigation, and airspace.
“A Ceuta-style surge is physically possible, and we should plan for it.”
Olevs Nikers · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-09
Nikers warned that a mass border surge similar to the recent Ceuta crossing is physically possible.