Nicholas Colas

“With less of this paper coming to market, Treasuries face less competition for capital.”

Nicholas Colas · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Colas added that with less paper coming to market, Treasuries face less competition for capital.

“but [Thursday] was a solid step in the right direction.”

Nicholas Colas · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Colas said Thursday's yield plunge was a solid step in the right direction, even if the fever of higher rates had not entirely broken.

“The fever of higher rates may not have entirely broken,”

Nicholas Colas · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Colas said the Thursday plunge in yields was an important signal and that the fever of higher rates may not have entirely broken.

“3 standard deviation move,”

Nicholas Colas · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Colas calculated the 10-year yield's 19-basis-point drop on Thursday as a move well outside the expected trading range for the flagship Treasury security.

“Our read is that the Treasury market is taking the equity and corporate debt market's collective angst about AI-related CapEx funding as a sign incremental issuance will slow,”

Nicholas Colas · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Colas said the Treasury market is interpreting equity and corporate debt market angst about AI-related CapEx funding as a sign that incremental issuance will slow.

“catalyst was not a sudden change in the market's view on the U.S. economy.”

Nicholas Colas · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Colas wrote in his daily market note that given current conditions including a sanguine reading on unemployment claims, the yield drop was not driven by a sudden shift in the market's economic outlook.

“a reasonable approach, recent painful history notwithstanding.”

Nicholas Colas · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Colas said history suggests the stocks-bonds correlation will return, making a mixed approach reasonable despite recent painful divergence.