Krishna Guha

“It will not be easy for Warsh to comment on yields in a way that is reassuring to markets while at the same time avoiding contradicting Bessent's unconventional actions, and Warsh might just decide to take a pass,”

Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-25

Guha wrote that it will not be easy for Warsh to comment on yields without contradicting Bessent's unconventional actions, and Warsh might decide to take a pass.

“had minimal impact on the bond market,”

Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-20

Guha said Bessent's CNBC interview had little effect on bond market pressures.

“A moderately bigger buyback program amounts to a weak form Operation Twist … that in itself will have little enduring impact and could backfire if it is seen as signaling concern about the ability to fund longer-term at acceptable cost,”

Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-20

Krishna Guha expressed skepticism regarding the long-term impact of expanding the Treasury's buyback program.

“in itself will have little enduring impact and could backfire if it is seen as signaling concern about the ability to fund longer-term at acceptable cost,”

Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-20

Guha warned the buyback move could backfire if seen as signaling funding concerns.

“We think this is much more suited to the type of tactical guerilla operation to catch shorts off-guard, impose losses and create a perception of two-sided risk that may slow down a fundamentals-driven move in yields and prevent overshooting – the smoothing version,”

Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-20

Guha described the 'Bessent put' as a tactical operation to catch short sellers off guard and reduce yield overshoot.

“a weak form of Operation Twist,”

Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-20

Guha characterized the Treasury's buyback plan as a weak form of the Fed's Operation Twist.

“The problem is that this may not have much lasting impact on where yields are a few months from now.”

Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-20

Guha cautioned that the tactic may not have lasting impact on yields months later.

“Global investors know that struggling sovereigns often resort to shorter dated issuance. We think the US is different from all others, but it is not different without limit,”

Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-20

Guha noted in a client note that shifting to shorter-dated issuance is a tactic used by struggling sovereigns, though the U.S. has limits too.

“can help crowd in potential buyers tempted by the prior run-up in yields and force some near-term short-covering, while discouraging investors from going max short in the future for fear of being ambushed again,”

Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-19

Guha commented in a client note on how the expanded buyback operation could affect market behavior.

“But the operation changes almost nothing in terms of the fundamentals in particular the unchanged need to finance the tidal wave of hyperscaler debt in addition to very large government deficits,”

Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-19

Guha added that the buyback change does little to address underlying debt financing fundamentals.