Krishna Guha
ON THE RECORD · 15 verbatim quotes · every quote source-verified
“This was not a mistake; it was a phrase he repeated several times and looked very much a deliberate choice to frame policy in this way,”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-18
Guha said in a client note that Warsh's repeated use of the phrase appeared to be a deliberate framing choice.
“This is a relatively open-ended prospect.”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-18
Guha characterized the prospect of open-ended rate hikes as a relatively open-ended prospect.
“the framing is substantively different to that used by the Fed in recent years, and raises the possibility of a more open-ended approach to the number of hikes that might be required.”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-18
Guha noted that the new framing differs from the Fed's recent approach and could signal a more open-ended hiking path.
“Warsh's framing, if taken literally, raises the possibility that rates might have to keep going up until financial conditions facing the private sector are no longer 'accommodative' — however that is defined,”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-18
Guha said Warsh's framing suggests rates may need to rise until financial conditions are no longer accommodative.
“the one stand-out hawkish element”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-18
Guha described Warsh's phrase about removing a dose of accommodation as the standout hawkish element of the post-meeting commentary.
“It will not be easy for Warsh to comment on yields in a way that is reassuring to markets while at the same time avoiding contradicting Bessent's unconventional actions, and Warsh might just decide to take a pass,”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-25
Guha wrote that it will not be easy for Warsh to comment on yields without contradicting Bessent's unconventional actions, and Warsh might decide to take a pass.
“A moderately bigger buyback program amounts to a weak form Operation Twist … that in itself will have little enduring impact and could backfire if it is seen as signaling concern about the ability to fund longer-term at acceptable cost,”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-20
Krishna Guha expressed skepticism regarding the long-term impact of expanding the Treasury's buyback program.
“We think this is much more suited to the type of tactical guerilla operation to catch shorts off-guard, impose losses and create a perception of two-sided risk that may slow down a fundamentals-driven move in yields and prevent overshooting – the smoothing version,”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-20
Guha described the 'Bessent put' as a tactical operation to catch short sellers off guard and reduce yield overshoot.
“Global investors know that struggling sovereigns often resort to shorter dated issuance. We think the US is different from all others, but it is not different without limit,”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-20
Guha noted in a client note that shifting to shorter-dated issuance is a tactic used by struggling sovereigns, though the U.S. has limits too.
“The problem is that this may not have much lasting impact on where yields are a few months from now.”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-20
Guha cautioned that the tactic may not have lasting impact on yields months later.
“a weak form of Operation Twist,”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-20
Guha characterized the Treasury's buyback plan as a weak form of the Fed's Operation Twist.
“in itself will have little enduring impact and could backfire if it is seen as signaling concern about the ability to fund longer-term at acceptable cost,”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-20
Guha warned the buyback move could backfire if seen as signaling funding concerns.
“had minimal impact on the bond market,”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-20
Guha said Bessent's CNBC interview had little effect on bond market pressures.
“But the operation changes almost nothing in terms of the fundamentals in particular the unchanged need to finance the tidal wave of hyperscaler debt in addition to very large government deficits,”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-19
Guha added that the buyback change does little to address underlying debt financing fundamentals.
“can help crowd in potential buyers tempted by the prior run-up in yields and force some near-term short-covering, while discouraging investors from going max short in the future for fear of being ambushed again,”
Krishna Guha · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-19
Guha commented in a client note on how the expanded buyback operation could affect market behavior.