James Smith

“nothing in the latest UK inflation numbers that screams a need to hike interest rates.”

James Smith · said 2026-09-16 · reported 2026-09-16

James Smith said in a note on Wednesday morning that there was nothing in the latest UK inflation numbers requiring an interest rate hike.

“The question is whether the energy shock is broadening out to other parts of the inflation basket. And there is very little sign that this is happening,”

James Smith · said 2026-09-16 · reported 2026-09-16

Smith questioned whether the energy shock was broadening to other parts of the inflation basket and said there was little sign it was happening.

“This covers everything from fruit to air fares, to canteens. Even stripping out the distortion from last year's water and car tax hike, the inflation rate for these energy intensive categories has actually fallen this year. That showed no sign of changing in August.”

James Smith · said 2026-09-16 · reported 2026-09-16

Smith noted the inflation rate for energy-intensive categories has actually fallen this year, with no sign of changing in August.

“It's a similar story when we look at goods and services the Office for National Statistics has previously defined as having 'high' or 'very high' energy intensity,”

James Smith · said 2026-09-16 · reported 2026-09-16

Smith compared the inflation picture to goods and services the ONS has defined as having high or very high energy intensity.

“By offering less commentary on where rates are headed … [Warsh] risks injecting yet more volatility into an already febrile bond market.”

James Smith · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-24

An ING Bank economist warned that Warsh's reluctance to give rate guidance could add volatility to an already febrile bond market.