Hal Brands

“Putin's theory of victory in Ukraine for a long time has been that at some point the West, particularly the United States, will get tired of the costs of confrontation with Russia and support for Ukraine,”

Hal Brands · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Brands said Putin's long-standing theory of victory is that the West, particularly the U.S., will tire of the costs of confronting Russia and supporting Ukraine.

“I think the only way you get there is by continuing to support Ukraine so it can take an increasing toll on Russia on the battlefield and by finding ways of ramping up rather than ramping down the economic pressure on Russia,”

Hal Brands · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Brands said the only way to change Putin's calculation is to keep supporting Ukraine and ramp up rather than ramp down economic pressure on Russia.

“It's probably the biggest effort that the Trump administration has made to start unwinding the U.S. sanctions architecture that's been in place against Russia since 2022 or even earlier in some cases,”

Hal Brands · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Hal Brands described the administration's waiving of Russia sanctions as the biggest effort yet to unwind the U.S. sanctions architecture against Russia.

“The risk you run here has less to do with the precise dollar or ruble amount that Russia will gain by being allowed to export some additional diesel than with the strategic signal you're sending that, in fact, the U.S. is getting tired of applying economic pressure against Russia and that the U.S.-Ukraine relationship is entering another period of conflict and divergence,”

Hal Brands · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Brands said the risk of easing diesel restrictions is less about revenue gained by Russia than the strategic signal that the U.S. is tiring of applying economic pressure.

“put a fairly significant squeeze on the Russian war economy”

Hal Brands · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Brands said such measures could put a significant squeeze on the Russian war economy and discourage other countries from doing business with Moscow.

“The challenge is that it's been clear for about 18 months now, since Lindsey Graham started pushing this bill in the first place in the early parts of 2025, that the president simply doesn't have much appetite for squeezing the Russian energy export system to the degree that people like the late Senator Graham envisioned and desired,”

Hal Brands · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Brands said it has been clear for about 18 months that Trump lacks appetite for squeezing Russian energy exports as the late Senator Graham envisioned.

“There's a potential for pretty serious pressure to be exerted if he had used both the sanctions authorities and essentially the secondary tariff authorities to go after purchasers of Russian energy products overseas,”

Hal Brands · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Brands said serious pressure could have been exerted had Trump used both sanctions and secondary tariff authorities against purchasers of Russian energy.

“It's really tough to craft a sanctions or tariffs bill that forces the president to do something, and typically you don't want to do that because there are always circumstances one can imagine in which you might want to be able to waive sanctions,”

Hal Brands · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Brands said crafting a sanctions bill that forces the president to act is difficult, and waiver authority is typically desirable.

“The threat of imposition may lose some credibility if over a period of time you've demonstrated that you would prefer not to impose those penalties in the first place,”

Hal Brands · said date not stated · reported 2026-10-23

Brands warned that repeatedly holding back economic punishment risks convincing Putin that Washington is unwilling to follow through on its threats.