David Mericle

“leaves little margin for error.”

David Mericle · said 2026-07-12 · reported 2026-07-13

Mericle wrote that factors such as a war wind-down, declining tariff effects, and overstated AI demand should bring inflation down enough to keep the Fed on hold for the rest of the year.

“The impact of yet another supply shock on the monetary policy debate could be more significant than the pass-through math alone suggests because it would add to frustration about what has already been a long series of supply shocks and the difficulty of knowing when they will end and would raise concern that they might eventually be enough to unanchor inflation expectations.”

David Mericle · said 2026-07-12 · reported 2026-07-13

Mericle wrote that if conflict re-escalated oil to $100 per barrel, Goldman’s modeling suggests monthly core inflation could be boosted by 3 to 4 basis points in the coming months.