David Mericle
ON THE RECORD · 6 verbatim quotes · every quote source-verified
“We do not see a strong economic case for raising the funds rate,”
David Mericle · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-14
Mericle wrote in a client note that there was no strong economic case for a rate hike despite Goldman changing its call to expect one.
“We think that all of the overshoot of 2% can be attributed to one-time factors whose impact is likely to fade.”
David Mericle · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-14
Mericle wrote in a client note that the inflation overshoot above 2% could be attributed to one-time factors likely to fade.
“some participants might be ambivalent about the first hike and some might want to avoid pushing market expectations any higher,”
David Mericle · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-14
Mericle wrote that a 10-8 split would indicate ambivalence about the first hike among some participants.
“But we see a risk of a majority for two hikes if more participants than we expect see a hike this week as a normal response to higher oil prices and AI demand and the start of a series of rate hikes,”
David Mericle · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-14
Mericle wrote that there is a risk of a majority for two hikes if more participants see a hike as a normal response to higher oil prices and AI demand.
“leaves little margin for error.”
David Mericle · said 2026-07-12 · reported 2026-07-13
Mericle wrote that factors such as a war wind-down, declining tariff effects, and overstated AI demand should bring inflation down enough to keep the Fed on hold for the rest of the year.
“The impact of yet another supply shock on the monetary policy debate could be more significant than the pass-through math alone suggests because it would add to frustration about what has already been a long series of supply shocks and the difficulty of knowing when they will end and would raise concern that they might eventually be enough to unanchor inflation expectations.”
David Mericle · said 2026-07-12 · reported 2026-07-13
Mericle wrote that if conflict re-escalated oil to $100 per barrel, Goldman’s modeling suggests monthly core inflation could be boosted by 3 to 4 basis points in the coming months.