Billy Leung

“That makes energy headlines more consequential for broader markets and reduces some of the diversification investors would normally expect between commodities and government bonds,”

Billy Leung · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-15

Leung added that the tight oil-Treasury relationship makes energy headlines more consequential for broader markets and reduces diversification between commodities and government bonds.

“The main impact is that an oil shock now transmits more directly into financial conditions,”

Billy Leung · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-15

Leung said an oil shock now transmits more directly into financial conditions given the tight correlation between oil prices and Treasury yields.

“Higher crude can lift inflation expectations, delay Fed easing and raise the discount rate applied across equities and credit at the same time.”

Billy Leung · said date not stated · reported 2026-09-15

Leung explained how higher crude prices can lift inflation expectations, delay Fed easing, and raise the discount rate applied across equities and credit.

“On the acute side, the Strait of Hormuz situation remains unresolved … so the geopolitical premium in oil is not going away quickly,”

Billy Leung · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-22

Billy Leung discussed the persistent geopolitical risk premium affecting oil markets.

“if anything it looks under-hedged.”

Billy Leung · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-22

Billy Leung observed that equity investors appear under-hedged despite bouts of volatility.

“But the more durable risk sits with AI capex. The scale of financing now being committed to AI infrastructure build-out, well into the hundreds of billions, is reviving a genuine debate about circular financing structures and weak free cash flow conversion across parts of the AI ecosystem. That is the risk with the longer tail, because unlike a geopolitical shock, it does not resolve on a single headline.”

Billy Leung · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-22

Billy Leung highlighted long-term risks surrounding AI capital spending and cash flow conversion.

“Implied volatility across major indices and ETFs has been drifting down toward one-year lows, and skew is sitting near the bottom of its range, which points to broad-based bullishness rather than fear,”

Billy Leung · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-22

Billy Leung explained that low implied volatility and skew indicate broad bullishness across markets.

“two live risk debates in parallel.”

Billy Leung · said date not stated · reported 2026-08-22

Billy Leung outlined two parallel risk debates currently taking place in markets.